On 02 October, 2015 – Global markets were mixed on the day and week
Shares were higher in Europe and the US Friday after a disappointing US employment report — investors pushed expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase into 2016.
United States
US stocks advanced Friday despite the weak employment report. After initially sinking in the wake of the dismal report, stocks rallied and ended the day higher. The S&P closed up 1.4%, the Dow Jones industrials finished 1.2% stronger and the Nasdaq jumped 1.7%. On the week, the Dow and S&P both added 1.0% while the Nasdaq advanced 0.5%.
A slowing in the pace of job growth in August and September from the first six months of the year prompted traders to push back expectations for the timing of a first rate rise to next spring. The sustained period of record low interest rates since the financial crisis has helped buoy stocks. News of slower hiring last month jolted the market early Friday, driving government bonds up and the dollar down. But stocks, after slumping in early trading, finished the day with a solid gain. The swing was also a result of traders’ speculating that the weak jobs report would prevent the Federal Reserve from raising its benchmark interest rate anytime soon. The Fed has only two meetings left to make a move this year — one later this month and another in December.
Discouraging economic reports have often been treated as encouraging news because it meant the Fed would keep lending rates at record lows. Low rates help drive money into stocks, partly by making the returns on bonds, CDs and other income producing investments seem paltry by comparison. Employers added 142,000 workers in September, much lower than the 200,000 anticipated by analysts. Employers also hired fewer people in July and August than previously thought. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.1%. A separate report on manufacturing orders seemed to buttress the weakening outlook. Factory orders declined 1.7% in August after a slight gain of 0.2% in July. It was the biggest setback since orders dropped 3.7% in December. Demand in a key category that serves as a proxy for business investment slipped 0.8% in August, following solid gains in June and July.
A jump in crude oil helped turn things around, as Chevron, Exxon Mobil and other oil companies charged higher. Nordstrom’s climbed after announcing that it will pay a special dividend and spend up to US$1 billion buying its own shares. Barracuda Networks ended the day sharply higher after the data security company announced a US$50 million stock buyback program. Micron Technology posted a strong gain after reporting better than expected fourth quarter adjusted earnings and net sales. Progress Software came under pressure after the business software maker reported better than expected third quarter earnings but lowered its full-year revenue guidance.
Gold at the afternoon London fixing was up US$21.75 to US$1,140.75. Copper futures were up 0.9% to US$2.33. WTI spot crude was up 80 US cents to US$45.54. Dated Brent spot crude was up 44 US cents to US$48.13. The US dollar was down against the euro, pound, Swiss franc and the Canadian and Australian dollars. However, it was up against the yen. The Dollar Index was down 0.25%. The yield on US Treasury 30 year bond was down 2 basis points to 2.85% while the yield on the 10 year note declined 5 basis points to 2.04%.
Europe
Markets here recorded gains on Friday. However, the early gains were pared after the US jobs report was weaker than expected. The disappointing data has many investors thinking that an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month is unlikely. That in turn has led investors to speculate that the European Central Bank may need to announce further stimulus measures. The European markets bounced back into positive territory in late trading as US stock markets began to reverse and recover from the lows. The majority of the European markets ended the day with modest gains. The FTSE was up 0.9% (and 0.3% on the week). The CAC and DAX were up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. However, the indices lost 0.5% and 1.4% on the week. The SMI edged up 0.1% both on the day and week.
According to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Eurozone growth is returning. “The progress achieved over the past three years to stabilize and strengthen the euro area is real,” he said. “Growth is returning.” “The way forward is well identified. And we will not rest until our monetary union is complete,” he added.
Volkswagen declined amid a report that California is planning to initiate a separate probe into the emission issue. Daimler advanced while BMW was marginally lower. Lufthansa jumped on a broker upgrade as did RWE. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank gained. In Paris, Total and Technip were higher. In London, Legal & General has entered into an agreement with the US subsidiary of Royal Philips to provide retirement payments under a group annuity contract to approximately 14,000 of Philips’ US retirees and other former employees. Experian declined after T-Mobile US said on Thursday that a hacker has stealthily obtained the records of 15 million of its customers by accessing the network server of Experian, the credit-reporting agency that processes T-Mobile’s credit applications. Mining stocks turned in a positive performance due to rising prices for precious metals. Fresnillo, Randgold Resources, Glencore and Antofagasta climbed.
Asia Pacific
Stocks were mixed Friday and on the week. Australian, Singaporean and South Korean markets declined while Hong Kong gained. The Japanese market ended little changed. The Chinese and Indian markets were shut for holidays. The underlying mood remained cautious before the US non-farm payrolls report which would be released after markets here were closed for the week.
The Nikkei was virtually unchanged (up 2.71 points) and was down 0.9% on the week. Construction, retail, chemical and most export stocks gained ground. However, food, real estate, oil, pharma, mining, heavy machinery, electrical machinery, financial and utility stocks came under selling pressure. August’s unemployment rate inched up 0.1% to 3.4% while household spending pleasantly surprised with a 2.9% increase from a year ago.
The S&P/ASX retreated 1.2% while the All Ordinaries lost 1.2%. On the week however, the indices were up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. The market was weak with energy, telecom, real estate, healthcare and financial stocks leading the slide. Retail sales added 0.4% in August.
The Hong Kong market, which opened after Thursday’s holiday, rallied sharply, with the Hang Seng jumping 3.2% higher on the day and 1.5% higher on the week.
Global Stock Market Recap
Please remember, the value of investments and the income from them can do down as well as up. Funds that invest in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than other overseas markets. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only.
Looking forward*
Monday — September composite PMIs will be released for Japan, the Eurozone, Germany and France. The Eurozone also will report August retail sales. September services PMIs will be reported for the UK and US. In the US, the September labor market conditions index and the ISM nonmanufacturing index will be posted.
Tuesday — the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its monetary policy decision. India posts its services PMI index for September. Germany releases August manufacturing orders. The US and Canada report August international trade.
Wednesday — the Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy decision. Germany and the UK post August industrial production. France reports August merchandise trade balance. In the US, August consumer credit will be reported.
Thursday — Germany’s August merchandise trade balance will be reported. The Bank of England announces its monetary policy decision and publishes minutes of the meeting. The European Central Bank posts minutes of its September meeting. In the US, FOMC minutes from its September 17 meeting are published. Weekly jobless claims, money supply and Fed balance sheet will be released.
Friday — French and Italian August industrial production will be reported. Canada posts September labour force survey. In the US, September import/export prices and August Wholesale trade will be released.
*Note — all releases are listed in local time.