On 19 February, 2016 – A positive week for shares
But most global stock indices retreated on the last day of the week.
United States
Stocks were little changed Friday in lackluster trading. Tech shares helped to offset a renewed decline in oil prices. The major indexes ended their best week of the year. The Dow Jones industrials slipped 0.1 percent and the S&P was virtually unchanged. However, the Nasdaq added 0.4 percent. On the week, the Dow was up 2.6 percent, the S&P gained 2.8 percent and the Nasdaq was 3.8 percent higher. While bargain hunting helped the markets to advance earlier in this week, buying interest waned over the past couple sessions.
Traders continued to keep a close eye on the price of crude oil, which pulled back from Thursday's intraday highs. Advances in oil and stock prices during the week were sparked by moves by oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, to cap output. However, a buildup in US crude oil stockpiles kindled worries over persisting global oversupply.
Corporate earnings reports dragged on stocks. Nordstrom dropped after the department store operator’s quarterly profit missed expectations. On Thursday, Walmart’s tepid sales outlook weighed on stocks. Deere declined after the tractor maker cut its fiscal year sales and profit outlook. Caterpillar also was lower. Trinity Industries slumped after the railcar maker’s forecast missed expectations. TrueCar fell sharply after the car shopping website operator reported weaker than expected fourth quarter results and provided disappointing guidance. Applied Materials advanced after the semiconductor equipment maker reported first quarter results that beat estimates and provided upbeat guidance.
January US core inflation was up by the most in nearly four and a half years, suggesting the Federal Reserve could gradually raise interest rates this year as forecast in December.
These data reflect observations at 4:00 PM US ET. Gold at the afternoon London fixing was up US$21.05 to US$1,231.15. Copper futures were up 0.1 percent to US$2.08. WTI spot crude was down US$1.13 to US$29.64. Dated Brent spot crude was down US$1.27 to US$33.01.The US dollar was up against the Canadian dollar. However, it declined against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc. It was virtually unchanged against the Australian dollar. The Dollar Index was down 0.3 percent. The yield on US Treasury 30 year bond was down 2 basis points to 2.60 percent while the yield on the 10 year note was unchanged at 1.74 percent.
Europe
European markets ended the week in retreat as investors adopted a more cautious attitude toward risk. Crude oil prices retreated as an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia on a cut in production began to look less likely. The weak performance in Asia and the early struggles of US markets also contributed to the negative mood. The FTSE was down 0.8 percent, the CAC dropped 1.4 percent, the DAX lost 0.4 percent and the SMI was 0.7 percent lower. However, Friday’s losses still left the indices with weekly gains. The FTSE was up 4.3 percent, the CAC gained 5.7 percent, the DAX jumped 4.7 percent and the SMI added 2.7 percent.
Over the weekend, the UK scheduled a referendum on whether or not the UK will remain part of the European Union for Thursday, June 23. The announcement, made by PM Cameron on Saturday, followed two days of protracted negotiations with the other twenty-seven EU government heads over Britain’s demands for ’’special status’’.
Allianz was down after the insurer reported a 5.8 percent increase in full year net profit, driven by strong performances in the life and health segments. Automakers Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW finished lower. Banks including Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander were down. Concerns over the health of lenders were reignited after the European Central Bank said that five institutions under its supervision missed a key capital ratio in 2015. Credit Suisse Group declined after Milan prosecutors were said to be probing whether it engaged in money laundering and evaded taxes. In the UK, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group, Standard Chartered and Barclays also retreated. E.ON and RWE declined. Kering was lower after the luxury goods group reported 16 percent growth in fourth quarter revenue. Essilor International was down after the eye care firm forecast full year revenue growth of 8 percent at constant exchange rates after reporting lower profit for 2015. Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Tullow Oil slid.
UK January retail sales grew more than expected. Excluding auto fuel, retail sales increased 2.3 percent from December and 5 percent from a year ago.
Asia Pacific
Stock indices here were mixed at the end of trading Friday but still managed to hold onto gains for the week. Shares slid from a three week high as the oil rebound fizzled and OECD cut its global growth forecasts.
The Shanghai Composite was 0.1 percent lower after the People's Bank of China said it would intervene daily to influence the money supply. The Hang Seng dropped 0.4 percent. The indices were up 3.5 percent and 5.3 percent respectively on the week.
The Nikkei retreated 1.4 percent thanks to a firmer yen, declining oil prices and losses in the US overnight. On the week however, the index added 6.8 percent. Exporters Canon, Nissan Motor, Panasonic, Sony and Toyota Motors were lower. Energy explorer Inpex, JX and Japan Petroleum plummeted. Software security developer Trend Micro slumped after forecasting profit below estimates. Apple supplier Japan Display declined after technology research company Gartner issued a report showing that Apple suffered its first decline in sales of smartphones in the fourth quarter of 2015. Tokyo Tatemono climbed on a broker upgrade.
Both the S&P/ASX and All Ordinaries were down 0.8 percent as oil prices retreated and Santos and Sims Metal Management posted dismal sets of financial results. However, both indices advanced about 4 percent for the week. Santos tumbled after it reported a full year A$2.7 billion loss, hit by hefty write-downs in a low oil price environment. Rivals Woodside Petroleum, Origin Energy and Oil Search also tumbled. Miners and banks also retreated.
The Kospi added 0.4 percent as automakers gained ground on a weaker won, which hit a near six-year low on concerns over renewed volatility in global markets and geopolitical risks stemming from North Korea's recent nuclear test. The Sensex was up 0.3 percent. On the week, the Kospi added 4.4 percent while the Sensex was 3.1 percent higher.
Global Stock Markets
Please remember, the value of investments and the income from them can do down as well as up. Funds that invest in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than other overseas markets. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only.
Looking forward*
The following indicators will be released this week…
Europe
February 22
Eurozone
PMI Manufacturing, Services & Composite (February, flash)
Germany
PMI Manufacturing, Services & Composite (February, flash)
France
PMI Manufacturing, Services & Composite (February, flash)
February 23
Germany
Gross Domestic Product (Q4.2015 final)
Ifo Survey (February)
February 25
Eurozone
M3 Money Supply (January)
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (January final)
UK
Gross Domestic Product (Q4.2015 second estimate)
February 26
Eurozone
EC Business and Consumer Survey (February)
France
Gross Domestic Product (Q4.2015 second estimate)
Consumption of Manufactured Goods (January)
Asia/Pacific
February 22
Japan
PMI Manufacturing (February flash)
February 26
Japan
Consumer Price Index (January)
Americas
February 22
United States
PMI Manufacturing (February, flash)
February 23
United States
Consumer Confidence (February)
Existing Home Sales (January)
February 24
United States
New Home Sales (January)
February 25
United States
Initial Unemployment Claims (week ending prior Saturday)
Durable Goods Orders (January)
February 26
United States
Gross Domestic Product (Q4.2015 second estimate)
Personal Income and Spending (January)
Consumer Sentiment (February final)
*Note — all releases are listed in local time.