On 25 August, 2017 – Neither the Fed’s Janet Yellen nor the ECB’s Mario Draghi referred to current monetary policy in their Jackson Hole presentations
The US dollar tumbled.
United States
Stocks were mixed Friday with the Dow Jones industrials and S&P gaining 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent respectively. The Nasdaq edged 0.1 percent lower. On the week, the three indices advanced. The Dow was up 0.6 percent, the S&P gained 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq added 0.8 percent. Trading was thin.
Traders reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks at the Fed’s economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Ms Yellen did not discuss either the US economic outlook or Fed policy. Rather, she stuck to the title of her talk — Financial Stability a Decade after the Onset of the Crisis. She said that the reforms put in place after the 2007 to 2009 crisis strengthened the financial system without impeding economic growth and that any future changes should remain modest. She did concede, amid pressures from the administration to deregulate the financial industry, that there may be benefits to simplifying the Volcker Rule which limits proprietary trading by banks.
Mr Draghi spoke later in the day, saying that the global recovery is firming up but warning that market openness is a key concern. Mr Draghi said that advanced economies must remain open to international trade. However he noted that openness to trade is under threat and a turn toward protectionism would pose a serious threat to the global economy. In his speech he did not comment on current monetary policy either.
Airline stocks rebounded with SkyWest, American Airlines and Southwest rallying. Considerable strength was also visible among electronic storage stocks. Pure Storage jumped after reporting a narrower than expected second quarter loss on better than expected revenues. Broadcom retreated after its quarterly earnings report disappointed. Autodesk advanced after the software maker raised its forecast.
These data reflect observations at 4:00 PM US ET. Gold at the afternoon London fixing was down US$3.70 to US$1,285.30. Copper futures were unchanged at US$3.06. WTI spot crude was up 44 US cents to US$47.87. Dated Brent spot crude was up 37 US cents to US$52.41. The US dollar was down against all of its major counterparts including the yen, euro, pound, Swiss franc and the Canadian and Australian dollars. The Dollar Index was down 0.8 percent. The yields on both the US Treasury 30 year bond and 1 year note were down 2 basis points to 2.75 percent and 2.17 percent respectively.
Europe
Stocks were mostly lower Friday with traders reluctant to make any major moves ahead of speeches from the Fed’s Janet Yellen and the ECB’s Mario Draghi. While Yellen spoke while the markets here were open, Draghi did not. In any event, neither discussed monetary policy or economic conditions.
The FTSE and DAX slipped 0.1 percent, the CAC declined 0.2 percent and the SMI dropped 0.4 percent. For the week, however, the FTSE added 1.1 percent and the SMI was 0.4 percent higher. The CAC was down 0.2 percent and the DAX was virtually unchanged, increasing 2.75 points.
Provident Financial gained after the company said it re-appointed Chris Gillespie as managing director of its troubled consumer credit unit. Aviva slipped after the insurer said it is selling its 50 percent stake in its Italian joint venture to its partner Banco BPM SpA. Supermarket stocks were under pressure after Amazon.com said it will cut prices at Whole Foods Market after the acquisition. Tesco, Royal Ahold Delhaize, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s all tumbled. Miners Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Anglo American gained as copper prices hit a three-year high on a brightening outlook for demand from China. Shire advanced on a broker upgrade. Royal Dutch Shell and BP also advanced.
Second quarter German gross domestic product expanded 0.6 percent on the quarter and 2.1 percent from the same quarter a year ago. August German Ifo business confidence weakened slightly from a record high. Economic sentiment inched down to 115.9 in August from July’s record high of 116. The current conditions component declined from 125.4 to 124.6 while the expectations reading improved to 107.9 from 107.3 the month before.
Asia Pacific
Asian stocks were mostly higher Friday as the US dollar strengthened. Investors were looking ahead to the speeches to be given after markets here closed for the week by Fed’s Janet Yellen and the ECB’s Mario Draghi at the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The S&P/ASX declined 1.62 points while the All Ordinaries added 1.75 points. On the week, the S&P/ASX slipped 0.1 percent while the All Ordinaries added 0.1 percent. In addition to waiting for the Jackson Hole speeches, investors parsed local corporate earnings results. Miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto advanced. Oil stocks including Santos, Oil Search and Woodside Petroleum were higher. Banks .ANZ Banking, Westpac and National Australia Bank declined while Commonwealth Bank edged upward. Select Harvest was lower after the almond grower’s full-year profit fell 73 percent on lower-than-expected crop prices and higher costs. Qantas Airways rose after it reported a 17 percent decline in full-year profit and announced an A$373 million share buyback.
The Nikkei gained 0.5 percent and the Topix was 0.3 percent higher after data showed that core consumer prices rose for the seventh straight month in July and investors waited for comments from the Jackson Hole meeting later today. On the week, the Nikkei edged 0.1 percent lower while the Topix lost 0.37 point. Among the major exporters, Sony and Canon were higher while Mitsubishi Electric declined. Among automakers, Toyota and Honda gained. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial advanced. July consumer prices advanced 0.4 percent on the year while the core CPI excluding only fresh food added an annual 0.5 percent.
The Shanghai Composite added 1.8 percent while the Hang Seng index gained 1.2 percent as investors cheered upbeat earnings results. On the week, the Shanghai Composite was up 1.9 percent and the Hang Seng was 3.0 percent higher. The Kospi was up was up 0.1 percent Friday and 1.9 percent for the week. The Sensex was closed for a holiday Friday and was up 0.2 percent on the week.
Looking forward
The following indicators will be released this week…
Europe
Aug 28
Eurozone
M3 Money Supply (July)
Aug 29
France
Consumption of Manufactured Goods (July)
Gross Domestic Product (Q2.2017)
Aug 30
Eurozone
EC Business and Consumer Confidence (August)
Aug 31
Eurozone
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (August flash)
Unemployment Rate (July)
Germany
Unemployment Rate (August)
Retail Sales (July)
Sep 1
Eurozone
Manufacturing PMI (August)
Germany
Manufacturing PMI (August)
France
Manufacturing PMI (August)
UK
Manufacturing PMI (August)
Asia Pacific
Aug 29
Japan
Household Spending (July)
Unemployment Rate (July)
Aug 30
Japan
Retail Sales (July)
Aug 31
Japan
Industrial Production (July)
China
Manufacturing PMI (August)
Sep 1
Japan
Manufacturing PMI (August)
India
Manufacturing PMI (August)
Americas
Aug 28
United States
International Trade in Goods (July)
Aug 29
Canada
Industrial Products Price Index (July)
United States
Consumer Confidence (August)
Aug 30
United States
Gross Domestic Product (Q2.2017 second estimate)
ADP Private Employment (July)
Aug 31
Canada
Gross Domestic Product (Q2.2017)
Monthly Gross Domestic Product (June)
United States
Initial Unemployment Claims (week ending prior Saturday)
Personal Income & Spending (July)
Chicago PMI (August)
Pending Home Sales (July)
Sep 1
United States
Employment Situation (August)
Manufacturing PMI (August)
ISM Manufacturing Index (August)
Consumer Sentiment (August)
Construction Spending (July)
Global Stock Markets
*Note — all releases are listed in local time.
Source: Fidelity
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