On 27 March, 2015 – European markets were mixed on continued worries related to Greece
Stocks were mixed Friday and for the week. Political worries in the Middle East regarding oil supplies and the continued tension concerning Greece weighed on investors’ morale.
United States
Stocks rose modestly Friday after late merger news in the semiconductor space supported the technology sector and helped major indexes snap a four day losing streak. The price of oil declined after a big gain the day before when traders worried that the escalating conflict in the Middle East would affect the flow of crude from the region. The Dow Jones industrials and S&P both edged up 0.2% while the Nasdaq added 0.6%. On the week, the indices lost 2.3%, 2.2% and 2.7% respectively. Investors now are focused on April when companies will start reporting their quarterly results. The questions are how much the rapidly appreciating dollar affected company profits in the first three months of the year and how did the cold weather affect business activity.
Stock markets were largely unfazed by Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments at a monetary policy conference in San Francisco. She said the Federal Reserve is giving “serious consideration” to beginning to reduce its accommodative monetary policy and a rate increase may be warranted later this year, although a downturn in core inflation or wage growth could force it to hold off.
Dow Chemical advanced after saying it would spin off a part of its business into another company, Olin. The Wall Street Journal reported Intel is in talks to buy rival Altera. Intel and Altera shares surged. Airlines including JetBlue, Spirit Airlines and United Continental rallied. Tobacco, housing and healthcare stocks advanced on the day while steel, electronic storage and energy stocks were weaker. GameStop reported a larger than expected revenue drop in the key holiday quarter and provided disappointing guidance as the retailer continues to adjust to shifts in the videogame industry. Carnival gained after it posted sharply better than expected earnings in its February quarter as fuel costs tumbled and onboard spending improved.
Gold at the afternoon London fixing was down US$7.40 to US$1,195.75. Copper futures were down 1.6% to US$2.77. WTI spot crude was down US$2.56 to US$48.87. Dated Brent spot crude was down US$2.78 to US$56.41. The US dollar was up against the Canadian and Australian dollars. However, it declined against the euro, yen, pound and the Swiss franc. The Dollar Index was virtually unchanged. The yield on the US Treasury 30 year bond was down 6 basis points to 2.54% while the yield on the 10 year note declined 4 basis points to 1.96%.
Europe
Stocks were mixed Friday and were down on the week with concerns regarding Greece still hovering over the markets. Although geopolitical concerns eased at the end of the trading week, the situation remains grim. Economic data from the Eurozone were largely positive. Germany’s import prices declined at a slower than expected pace in February and French consumer confidence improved to the highest level since 2010. The FTSE was down 0.6% on the day and lost 2.4% on the week. The CAC added 0.6% but lost 1.1% while the DAX was virtually unchanged Friday and down 1.4% from a week ago. The SMI also was virtually unchanged on the day and was 3.3% lower on the week.
Adidas advanced as did Fresenius Med Care, Fresenius, Merck and Bayer. Arcelor Mittal declined on a broker downgrade. Technip declined but Total gained. Carnival surged after its first quarter profit surpassed expectations. Balfour Beatty and EasyJet climbed on broker upgrades. International Consolidate Airlines also gained. Antofagasta declined after the Chile focused miner suspended operations in Centinela, Antucoya and Michilla mines due to heavy rains in the Atacama Desert. Mining stocks turned in a weak performance with commodity prices under pressure. Glencore, Anglo American, Randgold Resources, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto retreated. Novo Nordisk surged after the company announced that it will resubmit an application for its Tresiba insulin drug to the US FDA.
Asia Pacific
Shares here were mixed as well as the ongoing conflict in Yemen and lackluster Japanese inflation and household spending data kept investors’ risk appetite in check. While markets downplayed a supply threat from Yemen, worries about events there kept investors cautious.
The Nikkei retreated 1.0% thanks to the slew of weak economic reports that indicated the economy is still struggling. The index was down 1.4% on the week. February household spending dropped 2.9% from the year before and retail sales were down 1.8%. The core consumer price index excluding volatile food prices and the effects of the sales tax increase slid to zero for the first time in nearly two years, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to undertake further stimulus measures to revive the economy and achieve its 2% inflation goal. Fanuc, Honda Motor, Kyocera, Nikon, Nissan Motor and Sharp retreated. Panasonic however rallied on news it would spend ¥1 trillion on acquisitions over the next four years. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group also retreated. Toshiba slumped after SanDisk cut its revenue forecast for the year and current quarter. Toyota Motor retreated after it unveiled a revamped manufacturing system that could change the face of the global industry.
The Shanghai Composite increased 0.2% and added 2.0% for the week despite continued losses on US markets and mounting concerns over the impact of Saudi-led air strikes on the Yemen’s capital Sanaa. The Hang Seng was virtually unchanged Friday and was up 0.5% on the week.
Both the S&P/ASX and All Ordinaries rebounded with a daily gain of 0.7% on bargain hunting after Thursday’s sharp losses. For the week, the S&P/ASX lost 0.9% and the All Ordinaries, 0.8%. The big four banks rebounded from the previous day’s declines. Miners were mixed with BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto showing little change, while Atlas Iron, BC Iron and Fortescue Metals Group declined. The Kospi slipped 0.1% and declined 0.9% on the week. The Sensex was virtually unchanged Friday after the previous session’s sell-off and down 2.8% on the week.
Global Stock Market Recap
Please remember, the value of investments and the income from them can do down as well as up. Funds that invest in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than other overseas markets. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only.
Looking forward*
Monday — Japan posts February industrial production. The UK reports M4 money supply. The EU’s March economic sentiment survey is released. Germany reports March final consumer price index. In the US, personal income and spending for February will be released along with the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for March.
Tuesday — Germany releases February retail sales and March unemployment. France posts February consumption of manufactured goods and producer prices. The UK reports its final revision for fourth quarter GDP. The Eurozone releases its flash estimate of March harmonized index of consumer prices and February unemployment. Canada posts February monthly gross domestic product. In the US, January S&P/Case Shiller house prices are released. Also on tap are March consumer confidence and Chicago PMI.
Wednesday — China posts March CFLP manufacturing PMI and Markit/HSBC manufacturing PMI. Japan’s manufacturing PMI also will be released along with the BoJ’s first quarter Tankan survey. Manufacturing PMIs also will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany, UK and US. The March ISM manufacturing survey, February construction spending and the ADP employment report will be reported in the US.
Thursday — Australia reports January merchandise trade. The European Central Bank releases minutes of its March meeting. India releases its March manufacturing PMI. Canada and the US post international trade. Weekly jobless claims will be reported in the US along with money supply and Fed balance sheet.
Friday — March composite PMIs will be posted for China and Japan. The US releases March employment situation report.
*Note — all releases are listed in local time.
Anne D PickerChief EconomistEconoday