On 20 November, 2015 – Global markets advanced over the week
Stocks were mixed Friday but advanced for the week. US shares advanced thanks to gains by retail and technology shares. Early buying interest was generated by strength in emerging markets as well as more dovish comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
United States
Big gains by retailers and technology companies boosted stocks in Friday afternoon trading. The Dow Jones industrials were up 0.5% (3.4% on the week), the S&P gained 0.4% (3.3% on the week) and the Nasdaq added 0.6% (3.6% on the week). Stocks advanced on news that the Federal Reserve was assessing the economy favorably. Investors slowly have gotten used to the idea that the Fed is going to increase interest rates. That had worried them greatly a few months ago. But now stocks are rising because investors are taking heart that the Fed believes the economy is on solid footing. Meanwhile, new economic stimulus in Europe could strengthen the global economy.
Investors bought retailers as a more complex picture of the US consumer emerged, one in which some brands may emerge as winners this year. Just a week ago it appeared that the sector might be in for a dismal holiday shopping season after gloomy earnings reports were issued by Macy’s and Nordstrom. But since then there has been a raft of stronger reports from retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker, and indexes that track retail shares have surged.
Nike climbed after saying it will raise its dividend and buy back US$12 billion in stock. Abercrombie & Fitch soared after it cited a shift in strategy away from price cuts that helped its third quarter profit double. Ross Stores advanced after it reported better than expected results based on higher margins for its merchandise. Foot Locker posted higher profit for the quarter, demonstrating continued demand for athletic footwear. Gap rose more than 6% a day after it said sales fell 4% in the third quarter. Tech stocks traded higher. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, rose after it announced that the former VMWare chief Diane Green would run Google’s commercial technology business. Health care stocks traded higher. Shares of Aetna rose after it reaffirmed its annual profit forecast.
These data reflect observations at 4:00 PM US ET. Gold at the afternoon London fixing was down 85 US cents to US$1,081.75. Copper futures were down 1.1% to US$2.06. WTI spot crude was down 18 US cents to US$41.90. Dated Brent spot crude was up 48 US cents to US$44.66. The US dollar was up against the euro, pound, Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. It was virtually unchanged against the yen. However, it declined against the Australian dollar. The Dollar Index was up 0.8%. The yields on both the US Treasury 30 year bond and the 10 year note were up 2 basis points to 3.02% and 2.26% respectively.
Europe
Stocks here were mixed. However, despite the terrorist attacks in Paris last week, the European markets ended the week with gains. There was very little economic data to drive the direction of trading. Instead investors focused on dovish comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, with the next ECB meeting looming. The FTSE and SMI both edged up 0.1% while the DAX added 0.3%. The CAC slipped 0.1%. On the week, the FTSE gained 3.5%, the SMI was up 3.0%, the CAC gained 2.1% and the DAX advanced 3.8%.
In remarks to the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, Mario Draghi pledged that the ECB would do what it must to raise inflation as quickly as possible. He said that at the December 3 meeting the governing council will thoroughly assess the strength and persistence of the factors that are slowing the return of inflation towards 2%. He added, “If we conclude that the balance of risks to our medium term price stability objective is skewed to the downside, we will act by using all the instruments available within our mandate.” Draghi’s remarks were seen as a sign that the ECB may ramp up its asset purchase program following its meeting next month.
Both RWE and E.ON retreated. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank were down along with BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole. However auto makers Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW finished higher. Technip and Total tumbled. In London, Barclays dropped on a broker downgrade. Imperial Tobacco gained on reports that British American Tobacco is planning to make an offer to acquire the company. Royal Mail gained for a second day after the postal company projected an increased level of cost cuts and said it had delivered a resilient performance in the six months ended September 27 in a competitive trading environment. Shares in easyJet, Ryanair and British Airways owner IAG were lower.
Asia Pacific
Shares were mixed although some stocks erased early losses to end mostly higher as the dollar took a breather and investors remained confident that the European Central Bank will expand stimulus as early as December. Sentiment was also underpinned by expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a very gradual approach to rate normalization. Without explicitly setting a timetable, US Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer said on Thursday that the Fed has worked hard to prepare international markets for its first interest rate increase in nearly a decade.
The Shanghai Composite was up 0.4% on expectations the People’s Bank of China will retain a bias to ease policy further in the coming months as China undergoes a structural transformation. Sentiment was buoyed after the PBoC cut borrowing costs further on loans made under the standard lending facility in its latest effort to underpin the slowing economy. The Hang Seng added 1.1%. For the week, the Shanghai Composite was up 1.4% and the Hang Seng advanced 1.6%.
The Nikkei edged up 0.1% on the day and was 1.4% higher for the week. Trading Friday was thin ahead of Monday’s public holiday. Renesas Electronics jumped after the Wall Street Journal reported that German firm Infineon Technologies has expressed interest in investing in the semiconductor firm. Sharp soared on reports it is in talks to sell a portion of its display business. Shipping stocks fell after the Baltic Dry index, a measure of shipping rates for commodities, hit a record low in London overnight. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Nippon Yusen dropped.
The S&P/ASX added 0.3% on the day while the All Ordinaries was 0.2% higher. On the week, the former was up 4.0% and the latter was 3.8% higher. The big four banks advanced while miner Fortescue Metals Group Santos tumbled. Gold miner Evolution Mining advanced as spot gold prices held steady on a weaker dollar.
The Kospi was virtually unchanged on the day and up 0.8% on the week. The Sensex was up 0.1% on the day and 1.0% for the week.
Global Stock Market Recap
Please remember, the value of investments and the income from them can do down as well as up. Funds that invest in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than other overseas markets. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only.
Looking forward*
Monday — November flash PMIs will be released for the Eurozone, France, Germany and the US. In the US, October existing home sales will be posted.
Tuesday — Japan’s flash November manufacturing PMI will be released. Germany releases its final estimate for third quarter GDP and the November Ifo survey. In the US, October international trade in goods, second estimate of third quarter GDP, third quarter corporate profits, September S&P Case-Shiller house price index and November consumer confidence will be reported.
Wednesday — US October durable goods orders, personal income and spending, September FHFA house price index, flash November services PMI and final consumer sentiment will be released along with weekly jobless claims.
Thursday — Eurozone October M3 money supply will be posted. Japan releases October unemployment, household spending and consumer prices.
Friday — France posts October consumption of manufactured goods and producer prices. The UK reports its second estimate of third quarter GDP. The Eurozone reports final November economic sentiment. The US reports weekly money supply and Fed balance sheet.
*Note — all releases are listed in local time.