On 30 November, 2015 – European markets rose despite weak German retail sales on hopes for further stimulus

Stocks were mixed globally ahead of key central bank meetings and economic data. The US dollar continued to rise while commodity prices slid. In November, most Asia Pacific shares retreated while all but the FTSE advanced in Europe. US indices also were up in November.
United States
Stocks retreated in quiet trading Monday as traders returned from the Thanksgiving holiday. Retail stocks led the declines as early signals on the holiday shopping season failed to impress. Investors were focusing on central banks in Europe and the United States, which appeared to be going in different directions on interest rate policy. The Dow Jones industrials and Nasdaq were 0.4% lower while the S&P lost 0.5%. In November, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P added 0.3%, 1.1% and 0.1% respectively.
Retail stocks declined after initial data from Black Friday and the first holiday shopping weekend showed shoppers were not going to stores as much as last year. Preliminary ShopperTrak data showed in-store sales on Thanksgiving and Black Friday were US$12.1 billion, down from US$12.3 billion in 2014. However, reports from research firms like ChannelAdvisor showed strong growth in sales online.
As investors look for further confirmation that the economy is sturdy enough to handle higher borrowing costs, data showed contract signings to purchase previously owned US homes rose less than forecast in October, showing residential real estate is cooling heading into the quieter selling season.
The IMF has given the much anticipated nod to China’s renminbi as the newest member of the elite currency basket used to value its own “special drawing rights”. The announcement followed a board meeting this morning in DC at which the IMF’s 188 members voted to make the RMB the fifth currency in the SDR basket. The currency joins the US dollar, yen, pound and euro. The renminbi will become the third biggest currency in the basket.
These data reflect observations at 4:00 PM US ET. Gold at the afternoon London fixing was up US$4.50 to US$1,061.90. Copper futures were down 0.3% to US$2.05. WTI spot crude was down 11 US cents to US$41.60. Dated Brent spot crude was down 37 US cents to US$44.49. The US dollar was up against the euro and yen. However, it declined against the Swiss franc, pound and the Canadian and Australian dollars. The Dollar Index was up 0.1%. The yield on US Treasury 30 year bond was down 2 basis points to 2.98% while the yield on the 10 year note slipped 1 basis point to 2.21%.
Europe
Most stock indices advanced Monday. Investors shrugged off disappointing German retail sales data on hopes for further ECB stimulus measures. The European Central Bank will make its announcement upon the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday. The FTSE was down 0.3% and the SMI lost 0.1% while the CAC and DAX added 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. All indices followed here were up in November with the exception of the FTSE — it lost 0.1% on the month.
Auto makers Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, Peugeot and Renault all advanced. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank climbed. In Paris, Sanofi advanced after the drug maker said the first shipment of ShanIPV, a brand new injectable, inactivated polio vaccine or IPV manufactured by its affiliate Shantha Biotechnics in Hyderabad, India, will occur in a couple of days. Kering and LVMH gained. In London, Aberdeen Asset Management dropped after reporting its full-year results. Cranswick jumped after the food producer expects a strong Christmas trading period and said the business remains very well placed to deliver further growth in this financial year.
Delta Lloyd plunged in Amsterdam after the Dutch insurer said it intends to raise €1 billion through a rights issue. Deutsche Lufthansa advanced after the Verdi union confirmed an agreement on pay and retirement with ground crew, technical and cargo workers, even as the carrier continues to negotiate with restive cabin staff. BHP Billiton retreated after Brazil said it would seek 20 billion reals in damages from BHP and Vale, the owners of iron ore miner Samarco. A dam owned by Samarco burst on November 5, killing at least 13 people and dumping millions of tons of mud and waste in the Rio Doce valley.
Germany’s retail sales dropped 0.4% in October after declining 0.7% the month before. The euro was under pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting later this week, at which it is expected to extend stimulus measures.
Asia Pacific
Stocks were mixed to the downside Monday as investors awaited key global policy and data events of this week, including Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank and the US nonfarm payrolls report due Friday. Investors were also uneasy over greater volatility in China’s stock markets again. For the month of November, most indices retreated.
The Shanghai Composite closed 0.3% higher after a volatile trading session after posting its worst weekly performance since August last week on news of investigations into three major Chinese brokerages over suspected securities violations. The index fell as much as 3% before recovering. The Hang Seng retreated 0.3% ahead of an IMF decision to include the Chinese yuan in its Special Drawing Rights reserve currency later in the day and China’s November PMI readings due on Tuesday. The IMF did announce that the yuan would be included beginning in October 2016. In November, the Shanghai Composite added 1.9% while the Hang Seng lost 2.8%.
The Nikkei was down 0.7% after a mixed set of October data. The index added 3.5% in November. While retail sales rose 1.8% in October to beat forecasts, industrial output rose 1.4% from the previous month, up for a second straight month but below forecasts. Housing starts declined for the first time in eight months and construction orders received by 50 big contractors plunged 25.2% annually in October. Sony, lender Mitsubishi UFJ financial Group and energy explorer Inpex declined. Toshiba rallied on reports the company is considering selling stake in its semiconductor business. Automakers Honda Motor and Toyota Motor were down. Japan’s auto production declined for the 16th consecutive month in October but the pace of decrease slowed according to industry data.
The S&P/ASX and All Ordinaries lost 0.7% and 0.6% respectively alongside a broad-based commodities sell-off. The indices were down 1.4% and 1.3% in November. BHP Billiton tumbled after news the Brazilian government plans to sue the company for the Samarco mine disaster earlier this month. Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals also slumped. Gold miners Newcrest Mining and Evolution Mining plummeted after gold prices dropped to near six-year lows.
The Kospi dropped 1.8%, pressured by a tumble in Chinese markets the previous session and data showing a surprise drop in industrial output. South Korea’s industrial production unexpectedly contracted 1.4% in October from the previous month, casting doubts about a sustained recovery. The Kospi declined 1.8% on the month.
The Sensex edged up 0.1% but was down 1.9% on the month. After markets here closed, third quarter GDP grew 7.4% on the year, up from 7% in the second quarter. The RBI announces its monetary policy on Tuesday.
Global Stock Market Recap

Please remember, the value of investments and the income from them can do down as well as up. Funds that invest in overseas markets may be subject to currency fluctuations. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than other overseas markets. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only.
Looking forward*
November manufacturing PMIs will be released for China, Japan, the Eurozone, Germany, France, UK and the US. The Reserve Banks of India and Australia announce their monetary policy decisions. Germany, Italy and the Eurozone post unemployment data. Italy and Switzerland release third quarter gross domestic product. Canada releases September monthly third quarter gross domestic product. In the US, October construction spending and November ISM manufacturing index are reported.
*Note — all releases are listed in local time.