On 09 June, 2017 – Better growth in Germany, France and Italy is forecast
Most indices advanced despite the surprising UK election result.
United States
US stocks, after reaching record intraday highs, retreated to give back some ground on Friday. The Nasdaq dropped to close 1.8 percent lower while the S&P slipped 0.1 percent. The Dow Jones industrials however were 0.4 percent higher. On the week, the Dow was up 0.3 percent while the Nasdaq lost 1.6 percent and the S&P was 0.3 percent lower. The Nasdaq’s sharp pullback Friday afternoon occurred when traders took profits after the recent technology stock rally. Traders were also digesting the unexpected outcome of the UK elections in which no party gained a clear majority, resulting in a hung parliament.
Internet, software and computer hardware stocks moved significantly lower, reflecting weakness throughout the tech sector. Apple tumbled as did Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology. However, energy stocks moved higher on the day, regaining some of the ground lost in recent sessions. Chesapeake Energy, Helmerich & Payne and Transocean advanced. Financial stocks also saw considerable strength. The financial stock rally came after House Republicans voted Thursday to pass a bill rolling back many of the banking regulations put in place in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
Pandora Media was up on news that Sirius will invest $480 million in cash in the online radio company. Sirius, which is buying preferred stock and taking a 19 percent stake in Pandora, will also select three people to be named to Pandora’s board. DuPont Fabros Technology advanced after the data real estate investment trust and owner of wholesale data centers was acquired by another REIT, Digital Realty Trust. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at about $7.6 billion. DuPont Fabros Technology shares jumped while Digital Realty slipped. VeriFone Systems retreated after the maker of terminals for electronic payments cut its forecasts and said it will sell or restructure several businesses.
These data reflect observations at 4:00 PM US ET. Gold at the afternoon London fixing was down US$6.55 to US$1,266.55. Copper futures were up 1.5 percent to US$2.65. WTI spot crude was up 19 US cents to US$45.83. Dated Brent spot crude was up 29 US cents to US$48.15. The US dollar was up against the yen, euro, pound, Swiss franc and the Australian dollar. The currency declined against the Canadian dollar. The Dollar Index was up 0.1 percent. The yields on both the US Treasury 30 year bond and the 10 year note were up 1 basis point to 2.84 percent and 2.20 percent respectively.
Europe
Investors were largely able to shrug off the inconclusive results of the UK’s parliamentary election and advance at the end of the week. The FTSE was up 1.0 percent thanks to a drop in the value of the British pound that provided a boost to the index. The CAC was up 0.7 percent, the DAX gained 0.8 percent and the SMI was 0.4 percent higher. For the week though the four indices were lower. The FTSE was down 0.3 percent, the CAC declined 0.8 percent, the DAX retreated 0.1 percent and the SMI dropped 2.2 percent.
The snap general election called by British Prime Minister Theresa May turned out to be a setback for the Conservative party, which lost their majority in the Parliament. The ruling party was 10 seats short of the 326 seats required for a majority in the 650-member House of Commons. The Prime Minister later struck a deal with DUP, a minority party, and visited Buckingham Palace to stake claim to form a government.
The Bundesbank upgraded its growth projections for Germany citing a strong labor market, consumption and government spending and investment. The Bank forecast the economy to grow 1.9 percent in 2017, 1.7 percent next year and 1.6 percent in 2019. The Bank of France said the French economy is expected to grow faster as export growth picked up thanks to the global economic recovery. The bank raised the growth forecast for this year to 1.4 percent. The projection for 2018 was also raised to 1.6 percent from 1.5 percent. The Italian economy is expected to sustain its growth momentum that is forecast to improve over the next two years, helped by a moderate strengthening of foreign demand and the ultra-easy monetary conditions according to the Bank of Italy. Growth for 2017 was raised to 1 percent from 0.9 percent. The projections for both 2018 and 2019 were increased to 1.2 percent from 1.1 percent.
Deutsche Lufthansa rose after the airline said it would increase short-haul hold luggage fees starting June 13. L’Oréal gained after it said it had received a firm offer from Natura Cosméticos to acquire its Body Shop business. Air France-KLM climbed after it reported a 6.1 percent rise in passenger traffic for May. Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Barratt Developments tumbled on concerns that activity in the UK housing market will likely slow. Mining stocks received a boost from a rally in copper prices. Prices hit five-week highs as data pointed to robust import demand from China. Anglo American, Antofagasta, Glencore, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto finished higher.
UK visible trade deficit narrowed in April to £10.38 billion from £12.04 billion in March. April industrial production was up 0.2 percent on the month, below expectations.
Asia Pacific
Asian stocks ended mixed for the day and week. Investors largely shrugged off political uncertainty in the UK and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve announcement on June 14. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election backfired as the Conservatives fell short of 326 needed to command a parliamentary majority.
While the Japanese yen weakened following Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments on inflation as well as on quantitative and qualitative easing, the British pound weakened sharply following results of the UK election. Investors showed little reaction to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s surprisingly cautious tone in his post-meeting press conference Thursday and the public testimony of former FBI Director James Comey about his relationship with President Donald Trump and the circumstances that led to his firing also on Thursday.
The Shanghai Composite added 0.3 percent while the Hang Seng slipped 0.1 percent after the latest inflation data painted a mixed picture of the economy. Consumer prices in China rose an annual 1.5 percent in May, in line with expectations and up from 1.2 percent in April. May producer prices advanced an annual 5.5 percent, down from 6.4 percent in the previous month. For the week, the Shanghai Composite was up 1.7 percent and the Hang Seng was 0.4 percent higher.
The Nikkei and Topix were up 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent respectively. SoftBank advanced after it agreed to buy US robotics firm Boston Dynamics from Alphabet. The yen remained weak against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said there is still a long way to go until the inflation target of 2 percent is achieved. The main reason for the delay in reaching the inflation target is subdued inflation expectations, he noted. The Nikkei and Topix lost 0.8 percent and 1.3 percent respectively for the week.
Both the S&P/ASX (up 1.20 points) and All Ordinaries (up 0.67 point) were virtually unchanged Friday. On the week, the former retreated 1.9 percent and the latter was down 1.8 percent. Miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group climbed while energy stocks such as Origin Energy, Santos, Oil Search and Woodside Petroleum declined. Banks were mixed.
The Kospi was up 0.8 percent Friday and 0.4 percent for the week amid active buying by foreign investors and local institutions. The Sensex edged up 0.2 percent Friday and was virtually unchanged for the week (down 11.23 points).
Looking forward
Central Bank activities
June 13, 14
United States
FOMC Meeting an Monetary Policy Announcement
June 15
UK
Bank of England Monetary Policy Announcement
June 16
Japan
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Announcement
The following indicators will be released this week…
Europe
June 12
Italy
Industrial Production (April)
June 13
Germany
ZEW Survey (June)
UK
Consumer Price Index (May)
Producer Price Index (May)
June 14
Eurozone
Industrial Production (April)
UK
Labour Market Report (May)
June 15
Eurozone
Merchandise Trade Balance (April)
UK
Retail Sales (May)
June 16
Eurozone
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (May final)
Asia Pacific
June 12
Japan
Producer Price Index (May)
Machine Orders (April)
June 14
China
Industrial Production (May)
Retail Sales (May)
June 15`
Australia
Labour Force Survey (May)
New Zealand
Gross Domestic Product (Q1.2017)
Americas
June 13
United States
Producer Price Index (May)
June 14
United States
Consumer Price Index (May)
Retail Sales (May)
Business Inventories (April)
June 15
Canada
Manufacturing Sales (April)
United States
Initial Unemployment Claims (week ending prior Saturday)
Import/Export Prices (May)
Empire State Survey (June)
Philadelphia Fed Survey (June)
Industrial Production (May)
June 16
United States
Housing Starts (May)
Consumer Sentiment (June preliminary)
Global Stock Markets
*Note — all releases are listed in local time.
Source: Fidelity
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